NIGERIA’s inflation figure witnessed a marginal decline to stand at fell to 11.23 per cent year-on-year in June 2018 according to National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).
This is 0.37 per cent points less than the rate recorded in May 2018 which was 11.61 per cent and represents the 17 consecutive disinflation since January 2017.On a month-on-month basis, the Headline index increased by 1.24 per cent in June 2018, up by 0.15 per cent points from the rate recorded in May 2018.
The percentage change in the average composite CPI for the twelve months period ending June 2018 over the average of the CPI for the previous twelve months period was 14.37 per cent, showing 0.42 per cent point lower from 14.79 per cent recorded in May 2018.
The urban inflation rate eased by 11.68 per cent (year-on-year) in June 2018 from 12.08 per cent recorded in May 2018, while the rural inflation rate also eased 10.83 per cent in June 2018 from 11.20 per cent in May 2018.
On a month-on-month basis, the urban index rose by 1.24 per cent in June 2018, up by 0.14 from 1.10 per cent recorded in May 2018, while the rural index also rose by 1.23 per cent in June 2018, up by 0.15 per cent from the rate recorded in May 2018(1.08) per cent.
The corresponding twelve-month year-on-year average percentage change for the urban index was 14.71 per cent in June 2018.This is less than the 15.10 per cent reported in May 2018, while the corresponding rural inflation rate in June 2018 was 14.08 per cent compared to 14.53 per cent recorded in May 2018.
Also the rate at which the prices of good and services are increasing is rising.Data made available by the National Bureau of Statistics on showed that month-on-month inflation rose from 1.09 percentage points in May to 1.24 percentage points in June.
However, year-on-year inflation slowed from 11.61 percentage points in May to 11.23 percentage points in June, marking the 17th consecutive month of disinflation since January 2017 when inflation rate first slowed.“Highest headline year-on-year inflation in Rivers (13.82%) and lowest in Kwara(8.16%). Highest headline month-on-month inflation in Kogi (2.99%), lowest in Plateau (0.19%).”
Commenting on the inflation numbers on Channels TV, Bismarck Rewane, economic analyst, said the month-on-month inflation numbers are disturbing.“The rate of moderation in inflation is slowing which means that we are getting close to the point of deflation,” he said.
“Inflationary pressures are going to come up. The peak problem we have today is the price of diesel and that is what is responsible for the big difference between rural and urban inflation.“When you annualise the month on month inflation, it actually comes out at 15.94%, that is disturbing and that is going to affect the discussions at the MPC meeting today and tomorrow.
“Also important is 17 consecutive months of annual decline in inflation but it’s now getting to the point when it will start going up again. Month on month inflation is more current than year on year inflation.
“The price inflation you got today of 11.23 is actually comparing the prices of that basket of last year June to this year June. When you compare the price of that basket between May and June, you see that the actual rate of inflation has increased. When you annualise that, it comes to 15.94 which is significantly higher than 11.23 so that is the cause for worry that the inflation expectations and current inflation are pointing towards an increase.
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